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Close U.S. election contest comes as a surprise
As Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama relaxes in Hawaii, a cloud on the horizon might disturb his vacation: Why is he not doing better?
High gasoline prices, the war in Iraq, the home mortgage crisis, economic insecurity and the unpopularity of President George W. Bush should give Obama a big advantage over Republican rival John McCain ahead of the November 4 election.
Obama would be the first African American U.S. president, and his race is one factor that helps explain a contest that appears to be tightening, according to political commentators.
An average of recent polls gave Obama a 4.2 percentage point lead over McCain, close to the statistical margin of error, according to the Real Clear Politics Web site.
And Obama’s eight-point lead in June has all but evaporated, according to a new survey by the Pew Research Center, which said that 46 percent of voters now favored the Illinois senator over 43 percent for McCain.
One reason for Obama’s narrow lead could lie in the conservatism of voters in a country that has only elected a Democrat to the White House three times in the last four decades.
McCain’s standing as a war hero after his years as a prisoner in Vietnam, coupled with his reputation as a maverick prepared to defy his party, have also helped him at a time when many voters are disaffected with the Republican party, analysts said.
McCain has cemented his support among Republicans, many of whom were wary of his credentials as a conservative when he was first nominated by his party. He has also made gains among white, working class voters, the Pew Center said.
“An even greater percentage of voters than in June now see McCain as the candidate who would use the best judgment in a crisis, and an increasing percentage see him as the candidate who can get things done,” Pew said in a statement.
McCain has been quick to press home his perceived advantage as an executive during this week’s conflict in Georgia by placing the emphasis on his long experience in foreign affairs as a four-term senator.
DOUBTS
This election should be a “blowout” for Obama, said political scientist Alan Abramowitz of Emory University in Atlanta.
He based his prediction not on opinion polls but on a model used to track presidential election results back to World War Two that looks at political fundamentals such as second quarter economic growth during an election year.
But many voters who are not committed to either party say they have doubts about Obama, who has attracted much more attention than McCain since he beat Senator Hillary Clinton to win his party’s nomination in June.
“I don’t know where he stands. He may be good. He may not be. But it’s hard to tell because he is not specific enough,” said Bob Grover, an independent voter in Miami Beach, Florida.
Obama burst onto the national scene in 2004 and as a result some voters say they are uncertain about the direction in which he would lead the country.
Elements of Obama’s biography including the fact that his father was from Kenya and he grew up in Hawaii make him seem strange to some voters, said David Leege, emeritus professor of politics at the University of Notre Dame in Indiana.
Other factors making it harder for Obama were reservations about his race and concern he would use presidential powers to favor African Americans over whites when distributing government resources, Leege said.
In recent elections, nearly 20 percent of voters were susceptible to subtle appeals to race, though a smaller percentage were repelled by those kinds of appeals, Leege said.
“The reason the polls are close is partly because of the sense of antagonism that Obama might serve interests other than white interests and the doubt about: ‘Should you really take a risk on someone who is very different from us,’” Leege said.
“Most American voters will vote for a president they perceive as being like them,” he said.Subscribe=>
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